计算数学上最优的仓位大小,以实现长期最大增长。专业交易者和对冲基金用它来避免过度下注。
快速解答: The Kelly Criterion calculates optimal position size: f* = (bp - q) / b where b = win/loss ratio, p = win probability. Most professionals use Half-Kelly or Quarter-Kelly. Full Kelly is too aggressive for real trading.
公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)
示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。
Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.
公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)
示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。
Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.
公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)
示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。
Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.
Kelly only works with accurate win/loss data. Track every trade automatically.
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