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🎯 凯利公式计算器

计算数学上最优的仓位大小,以实现长期最大增长。专业交易者和对冲基金用它来避免过度下注。

快速解答: The Kelly Criterion calculates optimal position size: f* = (bp - q) / b where b = win/loss ratio, p = win probability. Most professionals use Half-Kelly or Quarter-Kelly. Full Kelly is too aggressive for real trading.

凯利百分比 = 胜率 - (1-胜率) / (平均盈利/平均亏损)
凯利百分比
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建议风险: ??
⚠️ 满凯利可能过于激进。多数专业人士使用半凯利或四分之一凯利,以获得更平滑的权益曲线。

凯利公式如何运作

公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)

示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。

Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.

凯利公式如何运作

公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)

示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。

Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.

凯利公式如何运作

公式: Kelly % = Win Rate −(Loss Rate ÷ Win/Loss Ratio)

示例: 胜率 60%,平均盈利为平均亏损的 2 倍:
Kelly = 0.60 −(0.40 ÷ 2) = 0.40 or 40% of capital
实际操作中,为安全起见使用半凯利(20%)——满凯利过于激进。

Warning: Full Kelly assumes you know exact win rate and payoff ratios —which no trader does. Always use half or quarter Kelly. Overestimating edge leads to over-betting and ruin.

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I have a $10,000 trading account. I want to risk 2% per trade. I'm trading EURUSD with a stop loss of 50 points. What should my position size be? Use the calculator at https://gfil-lab.com/tools/kelly-calculator.html

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